Condemned to Repeat...again and again...

In I.T., you don't install an upgrade to a critical application without first testing it in a lab. That enables you to see what might go wrong. As a nation, we have an extraordinary test lab for dealing with Moslem fundamentalists, and that's Israel. Israel deals with these same people, with their same unyielding mindset, continuously. We can learn from their experiences.

Remarkably, one Prime Minister of Israel managed to initiate several experiences. (I'm being careful not to say "mistakes," with sensitivity to the fact that I don't live under those conditions, however much I may regard them as mistakes.) Ehud Barak (that's Barak, not Barack), made 2 major moves that Barack Obama (Barack, not Barak) is in the process of making. Let's look at the parallels.

1- Barak withdrew unilaterally from Lebanon. In the wake of the withdrawal, which arguably was overdue, Hezbull' proclaimed victory. An empty proclamation, perhaps, but certainly it gave them the foothold in S. Leb. that they have had. Now, what happened, long term, following the withdrawal? Israel had to go in AGAIN, for a Second Lebanon War, in greater force and against a stronger enemy.

PARALLEL: Barack wants to withdraw asap from Iraq. He has said so throughout the campaign. The day we leave, Al-Qaeda in Iraq (or Mesopotamia or whatever they're calling themselves) will proclaim victory. The circumstances will hopefully be different. Hopefully the Iraqis will be able to maintain control. Hopefully. Short-term, likely. Long-term, not so likely. It's a matter of attrition. Single-minded fanatics have a tendency to wear down anyone who isn't equally committed to some opposing mindset. I don't think the Iraqis have the long-term endurance necessary to maintain a war mindset against the terrorists who will infiltrate their society in areas sympathetic to their cause, especially without American presence and prodding. If al-Qaeda or some (other?) Iranian-backed group makes enough gains, it is entirely conceivable we will have a Second Iraq War. The irony would be if Barack had to lead that war.

2- Barak sat down with Yasser Arafat, made offers and tried to make a deal. He gave away more than Arafat had any right to expect, but Arafat's response was not only to turn down the deal, but to start the second intifada. For the Israelis, this was an important milestone, tragic for them though it was. That's because it took sitting down with Arafat and making him an offer, to show that he was not the least bit serious about peace with Israel. He didn't make a counter-offer. At the least any reasonable person would have expected the Israeli offer to begin a round of negotiations. But Arafat didn't try to negotiate, he introduced more violence. (Hamas doesn't even make any bones about it, they refuse to negotiate, refuse to recognize Israel, insist that their unwavering goal is to eliminate Israel. Why anyone misses that is beyond me.)

PARALLEL: Barack wants to open the diplomatic channels with Iran. He wants to talk with Ahmadinejad. Ahm. did exactly what I thought he would do once Barack made an overture: He demanded an apology. That's what he wants. An apology. Sadly, Barack might take that step, in part or in full, because you know what? he believes we are so in the wrong regarding the Moslem world (see countless other blogs on this). If Barack apologizes, that will not be enough. An apology is not sufficient. Reparations will be demanded. Ahm., like most religious fundamentalists, is on his most solid footing when he believes he has the moral high ground. That's what he wants. He may, now, decide to go easy. Cozy up to Barack and have a pow wow, a Camp David. Wouldn't that be HISTORICAL!!? Wow! Barack would love that- any president would, they all want that. Barack Obama the Peace Bringer! Glorious! But Ahm. will turn out to be like Arafat. He will give no ground, he only wants ground. Whose ground? Israel's ground. That will be his price. He has already said so, that is the price of Iranian rapprochement. Barack says he would never pay that price. But what if the Israelis go back into Gaza? What if Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister? What if Israel is provoked into losing the supposed moral high ground? Can Obi maintain his stance? Is he capable of it? Does he have the grasp of history and recent events to be able to support U.S. and/or Israeli actions when confronted with ambiguities? I hesitate to say he does, I haven't seen the evidence. He ran on reversing the last 8 years, and he's implementing it. That's not appropriate, and in the current world environment, it's dangerous.